Thursday, April 10, 2014

Tropical Disturbance Peipha (Domeng) Update #11 (FINAL)

Issued (13 UTC) 9pm PhT 041014
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Peipha (Domeng) has weakened to a Tropical Disturbance or a Low Pressure Area over the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 250km west northwest of Palau or about 760km east northeast of Davao City. Peipha is moving eastward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection continues to flare around the system. However, it is very disjointed and continues to be sheared away from the low-level center. Most weather agencies in the region have now downgraded Peipha into a mere Low Pressure Area.

Despite the weakening, the system will still linger over the Philippine Sea and may still bring rains to parts of the Philippines in the coming days. We will also continue monitoring this LPA for possible signs of reintensification.

This will be our Final Warning for Peipha.

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #10

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 040914
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Tropical Depression Peipha (Bagyong Domeng) remains very weak as it lingers over the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 460km west northwest of Palau or about 530km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD Peipha is moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Peipha continuing to struggle amidst the unfavorable conditions in the region. Convective activity remains sparse and disorganized while the low-level center is still somewhat exposed. Wind shear across the Philippine Sea is also on the moderate to high side and will continue to hamper any significant intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Tropical Depression Peipha will continue moving slowly to the northwest over the next few days. Due to the unfavorable atmospheric conditions, we are not expecting any significant intensification to occur. However, light to moderate rains will still overspread Visayas and parts of Mindanao in the next 2 to 3 days. Peipha could make landfall somewhere in Eastern Visayas, possibly in Samar, by Saturday as a weakening cyclone.

We'll have our next update later today.

Monday, April 7, 2014

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #9

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 040814
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Tropical Depression Paphei (Bagyong Domeng) is showing signs of life this morning as it slowly moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 660km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Paphei is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased this morning and has formed closer to the low-level center. However, wind shear is still in the moderate strength and will continue to limit intensification in the coming days. Nevertheless, there is a chance that Paphei will strengthen into a Tropical Storm today.

The bulk of heavy rains associated with Paphei remain offshore east of Mindanao. However, scattered light rains have begun affecting the region and will continue to do so in the next few days. Paphei is forecast to move northwestward and could make landfall somewhere in Surigao Provinces by Thursday. Heavy rains will begin to spread into Mindanao and parts of Visayas beginning tomorrow.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #8

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 040714
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Tropical Depression Paphei (Bagyong Domeng) continues to struggle intensifying as it pushes towards the Southern Philippines. Paphei was last located approximately 300km southwest of Palau or about 700km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Paphei is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


 Latest satellite image shows strong convection forming near the circulation center. However, the bulk of activity is still displaced to the west. Strong easterly shear remains a factor making it difficult for Paphei to intensify significantly. However, these strong upper-level winds are beginning to blow the clouds towards Mindanao and could bring rainfall in the region.

Tropical Depression Paphei (Domeng) will continue moving generally westward in the next few days. Paphei may still be able to re-intensify back to a Tropical Storm once the wind shear relaxes a bit but typhoon intensity is unlikely at this point.

Rainfall may begin, especially across Surigao, Agusan, and Davao Provinces. 30 to 50mm of rain should be expected within the next 24 hours with heavier rains likely to come by Tuesday and into Wednesday. We're expecting landfall to occur somewhere in Surigao del Sur by Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #7

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 040714
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Peipha has weakened to a Tropical Depression this morning as it continues to battle moderate wind shear. The system has also entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has been assigned the local name 'Bagyong Domeng' by PAGASA. TD Peipha (Domeng) was last located approximately 120km west southwest of Palau or about 870km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are down to 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Peipha is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows much of the convection remains displaced west of the circulation center. Moderate wind shear continues to hamper development and looks like will remain that way for the next 24 hours. Due to this, significant re-intensification may no longer occur and strengthening to a Typhoon-intensity is becoming very unlikely.

Tropical Depression Peipah will continue moving westward over the next two days. Clouds from this system may begin to move in towards Southern Philippines and could start bringing rains in the region beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Heavy rains are expected to persist across Southern Philippines throughout the early part of the week. Some areas may see as much as 200mm which will increase the likelihood of flooding and landslides.

Anyone living in parts of Mindanao and Eastern Visayas should continue monitoring the developments of Peipha/Domeng.

We'll have another update later today.