Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Tropical Depression 21W (Queenie) Update #2

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 112714
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Tropical Depression 21W (Bagyong Queenie) continues to move across Western Visayas and is currently crossing the island of Negros. The center of circulation of TD 21W was last located approximately 70km south southwest of Bacolod City or about 130km west southwest of Cebu City. Maximum sustained winds are now at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 21W is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Southern Cebu (Including Cebu City), Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Guimaras, Iloilo, Antique, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Dinagat Province, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Bukidnon, and Zamboanga del Norte.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest visible satellite image shows the clouds associated with TD 21W (Queenie) moving across the island of Negros. The system continues to show improvements despite the continuous land interaction. Banding has tightened and the core has become more symmetrical and better defined. TD 21W will likely reach tropical storm strength as it moves into the Sulu Sea later this afternoon. Further intensification is likely, as well.

Tropical Depression 21W (Queenie) will continue moving westward and will soon affect the island of Palawan. Widespread rains continue across parts of Visayas but are starting to end for Mindanao. The islands of Panay, Guimaras, Negros, and Cebu will continue to see widespread moderate rains along with gusty winds. We expect conditions in these areas to improve tonight.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Tropical Update (TD Queenie)

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 112614
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A low pressure area moving towards the Philippines has been upgraded into Tropical Depression "Queenie" by PAGASA earlier this morning. The system was last located approximately 300km northeast of Davao City and is moving west northwestward at 25kph. Maximum winds around the center are estimated to around 30 to 50kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Surigao del Norte, Surigao Island, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostella Valley, Dinagat Province, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Bukidnon, and Zamboanga del Norte.

VIS Image from NOAA

 
Latest visible satellite image shows TD Queenie moving near Southern Philippines. Rains are now affecting Visayas and parts of Mindanao and will continue to do so over the next 24 to 48 hours. While the system is showing some improvements with regards to structure, it is running out of time for further intensification as landfall is likely to occur by tomorrow. Nevertheless, widespread rains will still threaten the region and can still bring serious consequences in some areas.

Tropical Depression Queenie will continue moving generally westward over the next couple of days. Rains are forecast to continue through Friday before tapering off in the weekend. Up to 300mm of rain is possible in some locations bringing the threat of landslides and flooding. Please heed the warnings of your local officials, especially if you live in storm prone areas.

We'll have another update later today.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Tropical Storm Nuri Update #9 (FINAL)

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 110714
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Tropical Storm Nuri is now moving quickly northeastward across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 740km east of Tokyo, Japan with maximum winds of 85kph to 110kph. TS Nuri is moving northeastward at 50kph.

Nuri is completing extra-tropical transition and should be a full-blown mid-latitude cyclone today. It is no longer a threat to Japan. However, Nuri will become a powerful cyclone over the North Pacific and the Bering Sea.

This will be our final update on Nuri. No other tropical cyclones are expected to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Typhoon Nuri Update #8

Issued (12 UTC) 8pm PhT 110514
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Typhoon Nuri is continuing to weaken as it moves across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 1,060km south of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph making it a Category 2 Typhoon. Typhoon Nuri is moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Nuri looking far less impressive compared to its appearance just a few days ago when it was a Category 5 Super Typhoon. The eye is now gone and become cloud-filled, convection has weakened, and outflow has lessened a bit. The inner-core structure is also starting to erode as dry air, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear are all taking a toll on the system.

Typhoon Nuri will continue moving quickly to the northeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. It will be passing well south and east of Japan. However, parts of southeastern Honshu, including Tokyo, may still see some light rain showers by Thursday along with breezy conditions and high waves along the coast.

Nuri will be moving out of the region and into the North Pacific, becoming an extra-tropical cyclone by Friday.

We'll have another update later today.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Super Typhoon Nuri Update #7

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 110414
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Super Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) is beginning to weaken this morning as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 880km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Nuri is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nuri has begun to shrink and be filled with clouds--signs that the storm is weakening. Cloud tops have also warmed around the eye which is a sign that convective activity is weakening a bit. Nuri is starting to move into an area of strong wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. However, dual outflow channels remain very robust which should help slow down the weakening trend for at least the next 24 hours.

Super Typhoon Nuri will continue moving northeastward across the Pacific in the coming days. Unfavorable conditions will lead to continued weakening during this time frame as well. Increasing interaction with the baroclinic zone will promote widespread rains ahead of the system which may eventually impact parts of Southeastern Honshu. Parts of Chubu and Kanto Regions, including the Tokyo Area, may see some scattered rain showers along with gust winds of up to 60kph by Thursday morning. Thankfully, the dangerously stormy conditions should stay well offshore.

We'll have another update later today.