Thursday, July 2, 2015

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #4

Issued (1430 UTC) 1030pm PhT 070215
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to intensify this evening and is likely to be upgraded to a Typhoon before tomorrow morning. The storm center was last located approximately 480km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving westward at 20kph.

A TYPHOON WATCH has been issued by the National Weather Service for Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian. Residents are advised to start preparing emergency plans for the incoming storm. As always, please follow the warnings and bulletins of your local officials. Stay safe!

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image show strong convective activity that is becoming more organized especially near the center. A recent microwave imagery (not shown) suggests that an eyewall is starting to form and that we could see further intensification tonight. In fact, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has already upgraded Chan-Hom into a Typhoon. We're still waiting for the Japan Meteorological Agency to do the same.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is starting to slow down and is forecast to start turning to the northwest as it rounds the periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. It will start affecting Guam and the rest of the Mariana Islands with periods of light to moderate rains. Seas will also start to be unsettled as the huge circulation of Chan-Hom approaches the islands. The worst weather conditions for Guam and the rest of the Marianas are forecast to occur Saturday and into Sunday. We're expecting typhoon-force winds of up to 160kph along with heavy rains and high waves.

If you live in one of these islands, you should start your preparations as early as possible. Continue to keep updated on the developments of this storm by checking our website as well as your official NWS website.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Tropical Depression 10W (Egay) Update #1

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 070215
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Aside from Tropical Storm Chan-Hom, we're now monitoring a new cyclone in the Western Pacific. Tropical Depression 10W (Bagyong Egay)is currently developing over the Philippine Sea. The center of the depression was last located approximately 870km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 10W is currently moving north northwestward at 10kph.

PAGASA has not issued any Public Storm Warning Signals yet but residents in the region are advised to monitor updates from the weather agency.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity starting to become more organized, especially towards the circulation center. TD 10W is located in an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. While upper-level patterns are not the most conducive, we still expect TD10W to slowly intensify in the coming days.

Based on the latest computer model outputs, we expect Tropical Depression10W (Egay) to slowly move northward. Some models are showing a turn to the northwest which may put the cyclone towards Northern Luzon. This uncertainty in the forecast is due to the fact that Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (currently moving towards the Mariana Islands) is forecast to influence the eventual track of TD 10W. With that said, parts of Luzon should see unsettled weather for this weekend.

We'll continue to tweak our forecast and hopefully, as we gather more data, we'll be able to produce a more detailed outlook for the Philippines.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #3

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to intensify as it moves quickly across the Western Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 750km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving westward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued a Typhoon Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Residents in the said areas are advised to closely monitor the weather bulletins and warnings for this storm.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continues within the vicinity of Chan-Hom's circulation. However, persistent easterly wind-shear is still inhibiting consolidation, especially on the eastern side of the circulation. Aside from the wind shear, TS Chan-Hom is also interacting with a weak tropical disturbance (Invest 94W) which is slightly slowing down intensification. Despite this, TS Chan-Hom is still forecast to continue intensifying and eventually attain typhoon-strength later this week.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Our preliminary forecast track is based on the current atmospheric pattern as well as some support from the computer model outputs. We are expecting TS Chan-Hom to generally move westward in the next 24 hours but should make a turn to the northwest by tomorrow. It will be moving near the Mariana Islands, particularly near Guam, by early Saturday morning as a possible Category 1 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves are likely to pound the region this week. Chan-Hom should also continue intensifying as it crosses the islands.Stormy conditions will likely persist through Sunday evening.

Please closely monitor the developments of TS Chan-Hom and as always, heed the warnings of your local officials. Stay safe!

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #2

Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 070115
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to intensify as it moves across the Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 560km northwest of the island of Pohnpei or about 1,200km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Chan-Hom is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continuing to build around the circulation. Wind shear is also starting to abate and we can see the low-level center starting to move in under the cloud overcast. Favorable conditions in the region will promote steady intensification through the next few days.

Computer models and forecast tracks from different agencies in the region continue to show a generally westward movement for Tropical Storm Chan-Hom. Steady intensification is likely and a high chance that the Chan-Hom attains Typhoon-strength later this week. Chan-Hom is forecast to move near the Mariana Islands, including Guam, this weekend.

Residents in the region are advised to continue monitoring the latest developments for Chan-Hom.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #1

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 070115
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As expected, a new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific today. Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is the ninth-named cyclone in the region this year. The circulation center of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 370km north of the island of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be around 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a huge burst of convective activity associated with Tropical Storm Chan-Hom. However, much of this convection is still displaced west of the low-level circulation center. Moderate easterly wind shear is still hindering faster development but the wind shear is forecast to abate as Chan-Hom moves westward.

Based on the latest computer model outputs, coupled with the current atmospheric pattern in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is forecast to continue moving generally west northwestward, intensifying along the way. It is likely that the system may attain typhoon-status as it nears the Mariana Islands later this week. Residents in the region are advised to keep a close eye on the development of this new cyclone.

We'll have another update later today.