Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Goni (Extra-Tropical) Update #11 [FINAL]

Issued (0230 UTC) 1030am PhT 082615
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Goni has now fully transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone over the Sea of Japan. The storm center was last located approximately 420km south southeast of Vladivostok, Russia or about 680km northwest of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum winds are between 60 and 80kph. This system is currently moving north northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Goni became fully extra-tropical early this morning over the Sea of Japan. It made landfall in the island of Kyushu yesterday bringing strong winds of up to 165kph and heavy rains of up to 150mm. Parts of the Korean Peninsula also received heavy rains of as much as 300mm. In the Philippines, Goni left 21 people killed in its wake.

The system will now head northwards and will be affecting the Russian Far East, including the city of Vladivostok. Strong winds and widespread rains will be affecting the region over the next 24 to 48 hours.

This is our final update for Goni. The rest of the Western Pacific is currently free from any tropical cyclones and we don't expect formation over the next few days.

Monday, August 24, 2015

Typhoon Goni Update #10

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 082515
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Typhoon Goni is now weakening as it moves into the Sea of Japan. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 370km west of Osaka, Japan or about 480km southeast of Seoul, South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kh. Typhoon Goni is currently moving north northeastward at 35kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Goni beginning to move into the Sea of Japan. Goni made landfall in the island of Kyushu earlier this morning bringing winds of up to 165kph and heavy rains across the region. It has since weakened with the eye no longer visible and convection weakening as well. We are also starting to see hints of extra-tropical transition occurring as the organization is looking more asymmetrical and elongated.

Typhoon Goni will continue weakening and should be downgraded into a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. Rains should also end across much of Japan by tonight but parts of South Korea, particularly the eastern portions, will continue to see wet weather last into tomorrow. Goni is forecast to complete extra-tropical transition by Wednesday or Thursday and may threaten the Russian Far East later this week.

We'll have another update tonight.

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Typhoon Goni Update #9

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 082415
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Typhoon Goni (Formerly Bagyong Ineng) is now moving near the Ryukyu Islands of Japan bringing strong winds and heavy rains in the region. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 130km northwest of Okinawa Island. Maximum sustained winds are at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Typhoon Goni remaining fully established as it moves just west of the Ryukyu Islands. Goni rapidly intensified last night and attained Category 4 intensity as it lashed Ishigakijima and the nearby islands. Wind gusts of up to 255kph along with rainfall amounts of up to 280mm were recorded last night. Thankfully, the core of Goni is staying well offshore from Okinawa and nearby islands. However, stormy conditions will still persist across the region through tonight.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image out of the Ryukyu Islands shows the eye of Goni staying just west and is close enough to bring bands of light to moderate rains across the region. Inside these bands, rainfall rates may exceed 20mm per hour. Overall, we're expecting anywhere from 100 to 200mm of rain over the next 24 hours. The good news is that Goni is now accelerating which should limit the duration of stormy weather.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Goni will continue moving northeastward and should begin to weaken today. It will start encountering increasing wind shear and drier air. Nevertheless, Goni  may still make landfall in the island of Kyushu as a Category 1 Typhoon by Tuesday morning. Aside from Kyushu, parts of Shikoku and Western Honshu may also be impacted by Goni. Eventually, the typhoon is forecast to move just east of the Korean Peninsula by Wednesday and is expected to bring unsettled weather into South Korea.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Saturday, August 22, 2015

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #8

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 082315
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Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) is showing signs of possible re-intensification as it moves closer to the Miyako Islands of Japan. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 130km southwest of Ishigakijima, Japan or about 250km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 370km north northwest of Basco, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued Storm Warnings for Yaeyema Islands, along with several advisories for high waves, heavy rains, and floods.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Goni has started to clear out after an apparent eyewall replacement cycle happened last night. A new eyewall has successfully taken over and we are starting to see convective activity respond to that as cold cloud tops reappear around the core. Apart from the successful EWRC, Goni is moving into an area of high ocean heat content, and radial outflow has also improved. We expect Goni to re-intensify into a Category 2 Typhoon later this evening and may maintain that intensity for another 24 to 48 hours.

Radar Image from JMA



Latest radar image from Yaeyema Islands show the well-developed eyewall of Goni with heavy to extreme rains embedded along the bands. Some of those bands have begun to impact Yaeyema Islands bringing rainfall rates of up to 20mm of rain in just an hour. Some of these islands, especially those closer to the core, may receive up to a total of 200mm of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours. Even parts of Okinawa and the nearby islands may see periods of heavy rains tomorrow morning.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) will continue moving north northeastward over the next few days. We expect slight re-intensification to happen between tonight and into tomorrow as conditions will remain favorable for typhoon strengthening. By tomorrow morning (Monday), Goni is forecast to move just west of Okinawa as a Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds and heavy rains are forecast to linger across the region through Tuesday.

Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon Goni will also continue to affect much of the Philippines, particularly Luzon and Western Visayas. Many areas, including Baguio City, have received as much as 250mm of rain in the past two days. We expect the wet weather to prevail across the said regions through the middle part of the week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #7

Issued (1230 UTC) 0830pm PhT 082015
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Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) has intensified earlier today and continues to move closer to Taiwan and the Philippine Islands. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 240km southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 600km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Batanes Group of Islands, Northern Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands.

Signal #2 for Rest of Cagayan, Northern Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Ilocos Norte.

Signal #1 for Rest of Isabela, Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Benguet, La Union, and Ilocos Sur.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Goni has cleared and become more better-defined as compared to 24 hours. The system has managed to re-intensify to a Category 4 Typhoon with the help of warm waters and good upper-level outflow. As the system gets closer to parts of Luzon, we are seeing bands of light to moderate rains beginning to impact the region. Winds will also start to increase especially in extreme Northern Luzon and the islands north of that.

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) will continue moving slowly westward over the next 24 hours. However, the system is then forecast to take a sharp turn to the north avoiding a landfall in either Luzon or Taiwan. However, the said regions will still experience stormy conditions that will persist through this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.