Thursday, November 6, 2014

Tropical Storm Nuri Update #9 (FINAL)

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 110714
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Tropical Storm Nuri is now moving quickly northeastward across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 740km east of Tokyo, Japan with maximum winds of 85kph to 110kph. TS Nuri is moving northeastward at 50kph.

Nuri is completing extra-tropical transition and should be a full-blown mid-latitude cyclone today. It is no longer a threat to Japan. However, Nuri will become a powerful cyclone over the North Pacific and the Bering Sea.

This will be our final update on Nuri. No other tropical cyclones are expected to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Typhoon Nuri Update #8

Issued (12 UTC) 8pm PhT 110514
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Typhoon Nuri is continuing to weaken as it moves across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 1,060km south of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph making it a Category 2 Typhoon. Typhoon Nuri is moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Nuri looking far less impressive compared to its appearance just a few days ago when it was a Category 5 Super Typhoon. The eye is now gone and become cloud-filled, convection has weakened, and outflow has lessened a bit. The inner-core structure is also starting to erode as dry air, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear are all taking a toll on the system.

Typhoon Nuri will continue moving quickly to the northeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. It will be passing well south and east of Japan. However, parts of southeastern Honshu, including Tokyo, may still see some light rain showers by Thursday along with breezy conditions and high waves along the coast.

Nuri will be moving out of the region and into the North Pacific, becoming an extra-tropical cyclone by Friday.

We'll have another update later today.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Super Typhoon Nuri Update #7

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 110414
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Super Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) is beginning to weaken this morning as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 880km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Nuri is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nuri has begun to shrink and be filled with clouds--signs that the storm is weakening. Cloud tops have also warmed around the eye which is a sign that convective activity is weakening a bit. Nuri is starting to move into an area of strong wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. However, dual outflow channels remain very robust which should help slow down the weakening trend for at least the next 24 hours.

Super Typhoon Nuri will continue moving northeastward across the Pacific in the coming days. Unfavorable conditions will lead to continued weakening during this time frame as well. Increasing interaction with the baroclinic zone will promote widespread rains ahead of the system which may eventually impact parts of Southeastern Honshu. Parts of Chubu and Kanto Regions, including the Tokyo Area, may see some scattered rain showers along with gust winds of up to 60kph by Thursday morning. Thankfully, the dangerously stormy conditions should stay well offshore.

We'll have another update later today.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Super Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #6

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 110314
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Super Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify this morning and is now in the upper reaches of Category 5 strength. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 990km southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,030km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds near the center are now at 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. STY Nuri is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nuri remaining well-developed surrounded by deep and strong convective activity. The very tight core of Nuri has remained virtually the same since yesterday with no hints of an eyewall replacement cycle occurring anytime soon. Nuri is also displaying very robust outflow channels and feeder bands and adopting a very large appearance on satellite.

Thankfully, though, this monster should stay well offshore throughout its lifetime. It will also start weakening very soon as it moves farther north across the Pacific. Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) is forecast to eventually recurve well south of Japan. It may affect parts of Honshu, including Tokyo, later in the week but the impacts should be minimal. There is the possibility for high waves, gusty winds, and scattered rain showers.

We'll have another update later today.

Super Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #5

Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 110314
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Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to rapidly intensify and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 970km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,080km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. STY Nuri is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the pinhole eye of Nuri surrounded by deep and very strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also very strong and robust feeder bands continue to aid in development. It is very likely that Nuri will be upgraded into a Category 5 Super Typhoon tomorrow morning. Further intensification is even possible as conditions in the region are still favorable for tropical cyclones.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Thankfully, this very powerful cyclone will remain over water over the next few days. Latest forecast consensus is taking Nuri north across the Pacific and eventually recurve to the northeast. It may still move close enough to bring mild impacts across the southern coast of Honshu by Wednesday and Thursday. High waves, gusty winds, and light rains are possible during that time frame.

We'll have another update in the morning.