Sunday, March 29, 2015

Typhoon Maysak Update #5

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 033015
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Maysak continues to intensify this morning and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 540km south southeast of Guam or about 920km east southeast of Yap. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Maysak is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service in Guam has issued a Typhoon Warning for Fais, Ulithi, and Faraulep in the State of Yap. Winds of more than 74mph (120kph) are expected to occur in as little as 12 hours. Residents are advised to move to sturdy shelters away from the shoreline. Please coordinate with your local officials for warnings and emergency preparedness instructions. 

Click HERE for the latest Weather Warnings from the NWS

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows an eye is beginning to form surrounded by increasing convective activity. Maysak remains in a generally favorable environment with light to moderate wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good radial outflow. We expect the system continue intensifying, attaining Category 3 status by tonight. It could even undergo a period of rapid intensification before moving near Yap.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Our latest forecast track remains generally the same. We think Maysak will continue moving on a west-northwesterly trajectory over the next 3 to 4 days. It is forecast to move near the island of Yap by Tuesday morning as a strong and dangerous Category 4 Typhoon. Winds of up to 200kph are possible in the island.

By Thursday, Maysak is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Chedeng' by PAGASA. Based on the conditions in the region, Maysak should slowly weaken as it moves into the Philippine Sea. Current track projections still diverge but the chances of a Philippine impact is becoming more likely. Whether or not Maysak remains a strong typhoon by then is still unknown at this time.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Maysak Update #4 (Video)

Issued (2030 UTC) 430am PhT 033015
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IR Image from NOAA

 
Typhoon Maysak continues to intensify this morning as it heads towards the state of Yap. The system was last located approximately 380km west of Chuuk State or about 700km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon  Maysak is currently moving westward at 25kph.

Watch our latest Video Update below for more information and where Maysak will head next:


We'll have another update later this morning. Stay safe!

Typhoon Maysak Update #3

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 032915
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Maysak has rapidly intensified since our last update and is now a Category 1 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 160km west northwest of Chuuk or about 860km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph.  Typhoon Maysak is currently moving westward at 20kph.

Due to the impending threat from Maysak, the National Weather Service in Guam has issued numerous Typhoon Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings across Micronesia particularly in the state of Yap. For the latest information regarding these weather warnings, please click HERE (NWS)

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast (CDO) associated with Maysak is becoming much better organized. Convective activity remains strong and an eye is starting to appear on the satellite. Radial outflow is also very good and is helping induce that rapid intensification that we've observed in the past 24 hours.

Typhoon Maysak should continue to intensify in the next few days as atmospheric conditions in the region remain favorable for Tropical Cyclones. Computer models are starting to converge on a track that will take Maysak near Yap by Tuesday afternoon (March 31) possibly as a strong Category 3 or even Category 4 Typhoon. Long-range forecasts depict a possible westward track which could take Maysak towards the Philippines by Thursday or Friday. Readers from the Philippines should continue monitoring the progress of this typhoon as it could impact the country later in the week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Friday, March 27, 2015

Tropical Storm Maysak Update #2

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 032815
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Tropical Depression 04W has intensified this morning and has been upgraded into Tropical Storm Maysak. The system was last located approximately 300km east of Chuuk or about 1,270km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Maysak is currently moving westward at 15kph.

The National Weather Service in Guam has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Fananu and Chuuk for the possibility of winds of up to 80kph (50mph). For the latest warnings from NWS, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows Maysak becoming more organized this morning with a developing central dense overcast and good formative banding. Convection has also increased and become more consolidated, especially near the low-level circulation center. Maysak is in an area of favorable conditions and is expected to steadily intensify in the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Our preliminary forecast shows Tropical Storm Maysak moving west northwestward, moving near the state of Chuuk tonight and into tomorrow morning. It will be passing well south of Guam by Monday and could even become a Typhoon around that time frame. By Tuesday, Maysak is forecast to be a Category 2 Typhoon as it nears the state of Yap.

We expect Maysak to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Wednesday as a strong Category 3 Typhoon, by which time PAGASA will assign the local name of "Bagyong Chedeng". Our preliminary forecast is based on the consensus from the numerous computer model guidance that we use. This is not set in stone just yet and it is still too early to determine the impacts this storm will bring to the Philippines.

We'll continue to keep you abreast on the developments of Tropical Storm Maysak.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Tropical Depression 04W Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 032715
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A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific this morning. Tropical Depression 04W was last located approximately 60km west southwest of Pohnpei in the Caroline Islands. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 04W is currently moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Tropical Depression 04W in its early stages of development. Convective activity has been increasing, especially near the center of circulation. The island of Pohnpei is currently reporting winds of up to 30kph along with light rain showers. We expect the conditions in the island to improve as TD 04W moves away in the next 12 hours.

 
Tropical Depression 04W will continue moving generally westward over the next few days. The system is expected to steadily intensify as the environmental conditions in the region should be conducive for further development. The system might even become a Typhoon in the next 3 days. However, it is still too early to tell whether TD 04W will eventually impact the Philippines.

We'll continue monitoring the progress of this Tropical Depression and will update by tomorrow.